I read a lot. The subject matter which interests me is everything. I’ll read the obvious, business books, investing, design, typography, biographies, etc. I’ll read for pleasure fiction, science fiction, fantasy, science, etc. I find that I like a book which teaches me something the most.
Ironically, one of the most useful subjects, when it comes to investing, is history. No matter what we seem to be caught off guard by today, chances are we’ve seen it before…let’s look at a few.
Bernie Madoff etc al.
These scam artists conducted a “Ponzi Scheme” and bilked a lot of people out of a lot of money. The basics of the scam are to convince people to give you money, which generates a great return on investment, mainly funded by the money from new investors. The reason it is called a Ponzi scheme is due to Charles Ponzi who basically made it famous in…1920!
Of course, Charles wasn’t the inventor of the Ponzi scheme. Every heard the expression “Rob Peter to pay Paul”? It’s basically stating the same idea, and the expression can be dated back prior to 1450!
Internet Meltdown
Back at the end of the millennium, the stock market was rocked as hundreds of internet companies with few, if any, revenues but huge valuations, came tumbling back to reality. How could this happen? Is “irrational exuberance” a modern invention?
Well, if you were to look into what is commonly known as “the south sea bubble” of the 1700’s you’ll see just one example, of many, where a company promised vast riches, with no real information as to what they’d actually do, or how money would be made.
Quickly Forgotten
Scams have been around for ages, but it doesn’t take us long to forget. Anyone remember Bre-X? A headliner for years, the biggest gold deposit ever faked. The whole thing imploded back in 1997–98. Yet today, we see companies like Sino-Forest apparently following in their footsteps.
Tulip Mania
Way back in 1593, tulips were introduced to the Dutch. They went crazy for them, and prices went through the roof. Until reality set in and the prices came back to reality. There is a reason today why I worry about people investing in diamonds, gold, and other “fads”.
The Fall of the Soviet Union
Back when I was in high school, I had predicted that, before the end of my lifetime, we’d see the fall of the Soviet Union and the United States. While, I admit, I was shocked at how fast the Soviet Union crashed, I was not surprised when it did. As for the United States, anyone who doesn’t see them in decline, is probably fooling themselves.
Now, I’m not a psychic, but I had studied the Roman Empire. I also know that no “super power” has ever been able to maintain world domination forever, if they had, we’d be reading this in some form of hieroglyphs or something. If you study the decline of the Roman Empire, I think you’ll see a lot of similarities to the modern USA.
There are many more examples I could pull out, these are among the more famous ones. When I was teaching, I often told the students that I probably spent more time learning than they did. Knowledge is a good thing to have, it lets you recognize a situation and avoid potential pitfalls.
Lesson: Those who do not learn the lessons from history are doomed to repeat them.
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